As its “70-day campaign of loyalty” wraps up, North Korea on Friday will hold its first Workers’ Party Congress in nearly 40 years, with young Kim Jong Un looking to cement his position as the country’s supreme leader — showing his people and the world who’s in charge.
The congress was last convened 36 years ago, when Kim Il Sung, the country’s founder and grandfather of the current leader, held power. Only seven have taken place since 1946.
While nations overseas may be watching for a shift of focus from missile silos to grain silos, the congress is expected to focus firmly on Kim himself, burnishing his credentials and his signature “byungjin” policy of simultaneously pursuing economic development and nuclear weapons.
“It looks as though the first congress since 1980 will essentially be a coronation for Kim Jong Un. This is somewhat analogous to the 1980 congress, which marked the formal coming out of Kim Jong Il,” his father, said Andrew O’Neill, a political science professor at Griffith University in Australia.
The congress comes amid soaring tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang conducted its fourth nuclear test in January and followed that with a slew of weapons tests that showcased both worrying successes and spectacular failures.
South Korea’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday that the North has completed preparations for a fifth nuclear test as part of possible “further strategic provocations” before the party meets, the Yonhap News Agency quoted a parliamentary report as saying.
While some analysts believe the congress will consider steps to formalize more market-based economic experiments and may even announce measures lifting restrictions on the thriving gray economy, Kim would first need to consolidate his power before going ahead with such reforms — if he is even seriously considering them.
He has worked to remove many of the old-guard officials installed under his father’s “songun,” or military-first, policy that may be an obstacle to his rule. Songun placed much of the power in the hands of the Korean People’s Army.
“The Korean Workers’ Party has become progressively weaker over time as the KPA has become the dominant bureaucratic force inside the DPRK, outside the Kim family, of course,” O’Neill said, using the acronym for the North’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Other analysts agree that the conference is Kim’s chance to reverse this trend.
“The congress is intended to revive the party and roll back the military,” said Robert E. Kelly, a professor of international relations at Pusan National University in South Korea.
Kelly believes Kim Jong Il’s military-first policy essentially bankrupted North Korea, making it all the more dependent on China while worsening famine and reducing self-sufficiency.
“Songun also eroded civilian control,” Kelly said. “Kim Jong Un’s father used songun to prevent a coup, but if North Korea is not going to become an economic colony of China, military predation on GDP has to be rolled back. Reviving the party as a counterweight is clever.”
In 1980, a total of 177 delegates from 118 countries attended the congress. This time, North Korea is not known to have invited foreign observers, a decision that may reflect its current estrangement, including from China.
Pyongyang’s nuclear test in January was seen as a snub to Beijing, which has called repeatedly for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and revealed weakness in Beijing’s influence over the hermit kingdom.
One nation that will be monitoring developments closely is Russia.
Moscow may be hoping thatonce Kim clears the congress, he will then ease tensions, focus on the economy and offer talks, said Artyom Lukin of the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia.
“It is significant that, of all the major world powers — as well as among the DPRK’s neighbors — Russia is currently the one that has the least strained relations with Pyongyang,” Lukin said. He said Moscow is well-positioned to play the role of broker.
Meanwhile, the congress may bring relief to worried party cadres that the era of purges and killings — which marked Kim’s early time in power — is at an end for now.
“South Korean sources are pretty clear that Kim still feels highly insecure and will act decisively to terminate possible rivals; in fact much more decisively than his father ever did,” O’Neill said.
Most prominent among those purged was Kim’s uncle, Jang Song Taek, a key adviser to Kim Jong Il and then to the younger Kim himself. Jang was executed.
“In this sense, it may be designed to convey a sense of stability after a fairly tumultuous period in DPRK politics,” O’Neill said.
Still, any appointments at the congress are unlikely to be long-term as Kim maintains an eye on potential challengers.
“Kim is in his early 30s, is seen as an inexperienced, callow youth, and probably feels he has a lot to prove to would-be rivals,” O’Neill said. “Short of killing them, his primary approach to rivals and potential rivals is to keep them off balance.”
Lukin also believes Kim may have to live with uncertainty.
“One cannot rule out that internal opposition to Kim does exist, despite — or perhaps because of — his recent purges, and may at some point make an attempt at dislodging him.”
For Kimologists overseas, the congress is likely to offer a clear look at who’s who in the regime — and where the fault lines may lie.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/03/asia-pacific/north-korea-party-congress-set-kims-coronation/#.Vyi17kizASY
